Dok Bus i Putin sede na stadionu u Pekingu i posmatraju defilovanje sportista, rat pocinje u Juznoj Osetiji, jednoj od dve gruzijske teritorije koje ne priznaju vladu u Tbilisiju (druga je Abhazija, bila je i treca, Adzarija, ali je ona vracena pod gruzijsku kontrolu 2004). Postavlja se pitanje zasto bas sad, nakon petnaestak godina primirja?
S jedne strane, separatisti i Abhaziji i Juznoj Osetiji su osetili da nakon priznanja jednostrano progladjene nezavisnosti Kosova od strane vodecih drzava Zapada, oni mogu uciniti nesto slicno i ocekivati podrsku Rusije. Prethodno su organizovana cak dva referenduma (doduse nepriznata od medjunarodne zajednice), jedan 1992, a potom drugi iz 2006, pregovori pod pokroviteljstvom OEBS-a su propali prosle godine, i konacno je u aprilu ove godine odbijen je predlog tipa "vise od autonomije, manje od nezavisnosti" koji je nudila gruzijska strana. Rukovodstvo Juzne Osetije je, pouceno dogadjajima na Balkanu, skapiralo da sve moze, ako imas mocnu drzavu iza sebe, a u njihovom slucaju to je Rusija.
S druge strane, gruzijski predsednik Misa Sakasvili kapira da je situacija sad ili nikad. On takodje misli da ima mocnu drzavu iza sebe, Ameriku, ali da ce, sto vreme duze bude odmicalo, sve teze biti izvesti vojnu akciju protiv separatista. Vec sad se oseca smanjenje uticaja Amerike i povecanje uticaja Rusije na Kavkazu. Gruzija nije primljena u NATO na samitu u Bukurestu, mada su vojni odnosi veoma bliski, americki oficiri vode programe obuke i modernizacije gruzijskih trupa, a Gruzija ucestvuje u operacijama u Iraku. Sledeca godina donosi novog Americkog predsednika, donosi nove probleme sa Iranom, vreme nije na strani gruzijskog predsednika.
Misa Sakasvili se takodje nada da ce uspeti da vojno porazi Juznu Osetiju, ako vojna akcija bude brza. Za razliju od Abhazije, Juzna Osetija je prakticno odvojena od Severne Osetije, koja je u sastavu Rusije, neprohodnim planinama, sto otezava prebacivanje ruskih trupa. To ce, nada se Sakasvili, gruzijskim snagama omoguciti da zauzmu Tsinvali, glavni grad Juzne Osetije i stave Rusiju pred svrsen cin.
Medjutim, vec posle nekoliko sati postalo je ocigledno da je Rusija reagovala brzo i odlucno, dok se Amerika jos uvek drzi retorickih reakcija. Izgleda da ce SAD da pomogne Gruziji onoliko koliko je Rusija pomogla Srbiji 1999, odnosno da je gruzijska vojna akcija u Juznoj Osetiji propala, nema nista od brzog zauzimanja Juzne Osetije. Sad je samo pitanje sta ce se desiti, da li ce rezultat biti prekid vatre uz pojacano pristustvo ruskih trupa ili otvoreni rat koji moze poprilicno da potraje.

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